Small boats have owned this year's Blue Water Pointscore, and Friday's race to Tollgate Islands will show whether that holds.
Jules Hall's J/99 Disko Trooper, sailed double-handed, leads IRC overall on just 3 points after a second and a first. That puts her five points clear of Sean Langman's GP42 Back 2 Black heading into Friday's race, the series' halfway point.
The double-handers have had the better of it so far. Weather across the first two races has favoured the smaller boats, and in race two the double-handed entries filled the top three places outright: Disko Trooper, Andy Offord's Sunfast 3300 Borderline, and Chris O'Neill's J/99 Blue Planet.
Further down the order it's Ron Forster and Phil Damp's Beneteau First 40 Ariel in third, Edward Cox's Ker 40 Minerva fourth, Chris and Lachlan Dare's GP42 Ambition fifth, Alex Seja and Felicity Nelson's Sydney 36 Supernova sixth, and Michael Rowe and Ben Martin's Cookson 12 Kanreki seventh. The TP52s leading on line honours are well back on handicap, with Smuggler 10th and Gusto 13th.
On PHS the gap is even wider. Disko Trooper holds 4 points, ten clear of Blue Planet.
Disko Trooper and Blue Planet keep trading wins in the double-handed divisions. Disko Trooper leads Double-Handed IRC with two bullets, while Blue Planet is ahead by a single point in Double-Handed PHS.
Ariel has quietly been the most consistent boat in the fleet. Two thirds have her on 6 points and leading the Corinthian division, with Kanreki (8) and Supernova (9) close behind.
In the Wild Rose division, Kanreki and Richard Hudson's Pretty Woman have a win apiece, separated by a single point.
For line honours it's Sebastian Bohm's Smuggler out front on 3, ahead of Lee Hawksley's Gusto on 5 and Back 2 Black on 7. Robert Appleyard's Moneypenny won race two on the water but missed the season opener, which keeps her out of the honours picture for now.
History suggests the big boats could come back. Last year Moneypenny, a 69-footer, won IRC overall ahead of the 72ft URM Group and the 38ft Bacchanal. In 2024 it was a clean sweep for size, with Comanche (100ft), Whisper (62ft), Smuggler (52ft) and URM Group (72ft) taking the top four places.
Not always, though. In 2023 the double-handed Kraken III beat Andoo Comanche outright, with Hall's Disko Trooper third. Hall returns to Tollgate this year as series leader.
At 260 nautical miles, there's plenty of track left for the fleet to come unstuck or come good.
The race starts at 1700 hours tomorrow, Friday 16 October, with the twenty-six strong fleet leaving Sydney Harbour bound for the Tollgate Islands, four nautical miles off Batemans Bay, before rounding and heading back north to finish in Sydney Harbour. The race record stands at 20 hours, 16 minutes and 49 seconds, set by Andoo Comanche in the race's first edition.
A moderate 15-knot easterly should give the fleet a lively sunset start, easing overnight to something closer to 10-15 knots in places. Boats that hold their speed through that overnight transition could get an early jump on the fleet.
Saturday looks set to hold a fairly consistent easterly of 10-15 knots along the coast, before trending more northeasterly during the evening towards Batemans Bay, right around when boats are approaching the Tollgate Islands turning mark. The timing of that shift could prove decisive.
The real unknown is the trip home. As the sun sets on Sunday, the breeze could drop with it. Pressure systems will converge into variable conditions, posing a final test for anyone still racing overnight and into Sunday afternoon.
Whether Moneypenny and the other big boats finally assert themselves, or the double-handers extend their season-long run, the answer should be clear well before the fleet is back inside Sydney Harbour.
