After yesterday's dramatic incident involving the Black Foils and France, attention has turned squarely to what the weather will serve up for day two. Sustained conditions fall comfortably within a workable racing range. The critical factor is timing.
Organisers made a shrewd call on Friday, moving Sunday's start forward to 1100. By mid-afternoon, Auckland's harbour is forecast to turn considerably more hostile, with gusts threatening to reach 40 knots, around 74 km/h. A 1600 race window would have been not just challenging but potentially dangerous, so the earlier slot makes clear sense.
*Mid-teens breeze, big gusts*
Through the racing window, from 1100 until shortly after noon, sustained winds are expected to sit in the mid-teens. That is roughly 15 knots, or about 28 km/h, with average speeds across the course likely to range between 25 and 30 km/h.
Direction will be broadly southwest, similar to yesterday. Some models hint at a gradual shift toward the south as the session wears on, which could influence laylines and the favoured side of the course.
The gusts are where it gets interesting. Forecast peaks reach 31 knots, approximately 57 km/h, with high-20s gusts of around 52 to 55 km/h looking near-certain at various points during racing. Flight controllers and trimmers will have their hands full, though by SailGP standards this is not extreme territory. It will, however, demand sharp reaction times and precise boat handling throughout.
What comes later tells a different story. Forecast gusts approaching 40 knots, close to 74 km/h, later in the afternoon confirm exactly why racing was brought forward.
*Sea state and tide in play*
Wave height is forecast at 0.5 metres, a fraction smaller than yesterday's conditions. The four-second period remains short, ensuring the harbour stays choppy and unsettled. With both wind and swell arriving from the southwest, crews can expect tight, punchy impacts rather than the rhythm of longer rolling swells.
The tidal picture is reversed from day one. Yesterday's racing took place near the top of the tide with water flooding in. Today the flow is outgoing, with low tide scheduled for 1246, shortly after racing is expected to wrap up.
An ebbing tide may flatten certain sections of the course, but it could also generate awkward cross-currents near marks, particularly if the breeze nudges further south. In a fleet as closely matched as SailGP, that is the kind of detail that separates clean races from costly errors.
*Cloud cover, cooler air*
Cloud cover is expected to sit at around 50 percent, a reduction from yesterday. There is a reasonable chance of genuine blue sky by midday, and UV levels will climb toward lunchtime. Teams and shore crews will want sunscreen regardless of the cooler feel in the air.
Temperatures are sitting between 18 and 19 degrees, a slight step down from day one. Once the F50s are foiling at 80 km/h or beyond, apparent wind will make it feel noticeably brisk for everyone on board.
A little rain cannot be entirely ruled out, though nothing meaningful is expected. Conditions will not be exactly comfortable, but they are very much raceable.
*The bottom line*
Sustained winds around 28 km/h and gusts reaching up to 50 km/h will keep the F50s honest without pushing into genuinely perilous territory. The earlier start neatly sidesteps the worst of what Auckland has planned for later in the day.
After the tension that defined day one, there will be nerves in the camp. Nothing in this forecast argues against racing going ahead. It will be physical and it will be fast, and with an outgoing tide and a sharp southwest chop underfoot, the conditions will reward precision far more than brute force.
For the Black Foils and the rest of the fleet, day two presents a clear window. Use it well before Auckland decides to turn up the dial.
*PredictWind*
We use PredictWind forecasting tables and maps for our weather reviews, both during racing and when we are personally out on the boats. It is a quality service.
