Lucky opens 320-mile lead on Tasman with record in sight

There is Lucky, and then there is the rest of the fleet wondering where she went.

Two days into the Sydney to Auckland Ocean Race, the Juan K-designed 27-metre maxi has turned what was already a healthy lead into something bordering on dominant. By 8 am NZ time on Monday, Lucky had logged a 24-hour run of 513 miles and sat 547 nautical miles from Auckland, almost halfway across the Tasman. Her margin over second-placed Antipodes had ballooned from 95 miles to more than 320 in the space of a single day, the boat averaging 18 knots as she went.

The backstory makes it all the more striking. Owner Bryon Ehrhart and his crew, which includes Kiwi legend Brad Butterworth, very nearly missed the start entirely. An engine issue mid-week forced Lucky to turn back to Opua, and she only made it to Sydney in time for Saturday's start by the slimmest of margins. None of that appears to have unsettled the crew. Lucky is now sailing well ahead of the pace required to threaten the race record, and the question has shifted from whether she can win to whether that record is genuinely within reach.

While Lucky stretches away, the real racing is unfolding among the boats behind her. Geoff Hill's Antipodes and Mick Martin's Frantic have been locked in a close mid-ocean duel since clearing Sydney Heads, and as of Monday morning they remain barely ten miles apart. Neither crew has managed to shake the other.

Further back, Ian Edwards' Wings and Alan Hill's Cooloola have been making steady progress in near-perfect sailing weather. The two boats spent much of the passage within VHF range of one another, though Wings eased ahead overnight and now holds roughly a forty-mile advantage. Across the fleet, every yacht improved its 24-hour run in the period to Monday morning, a reflection of settled crews, clean gear, and a nor'wester that sailors could scarcely have wished to improve upon.

Whether that benign picture holds depends on what comes next. Meteorologist Roger "Clouds" Badham expects those north-westerlies to hold through Monday before a front pushes off the New South Wales coast late tonight. The system should cross the Tasman and reach the top of the North Island on Tuesday evening, bringing a shift to cooler south-westerly winds. At her current pace, Lucky ought to make Auckland before the change arrives. For Antipodes, Frantic, and the smaller boats still stretching across the Tasman, the final approach into the Hauraki Gulf could turn into a tough beat against the new breeze.

Two days in, this race has already split into two distinct contests. Lucky is chasing time and a potential record. Everyone else is chasing each other across some of the finest offshore sailing conditions the Tasman has offered in years.

Sydney to Auckland Ocean Race 2025 — Monday 13 October, 8 am NZDT