Sam Goodchild is driving MACIF Santé Prévoyance hard toward the Arctic Circle, holding the race lead since the fleet departed Les Sables d'Olonne. Three days in, the British skipper has finally managed some genuine rest, though a savage weather system is already building directly across his path.
Goodchild spoke by radio at around 9:28 NZST this morning, making no attempt to soften how punishing the opening days of the Vendée Arctique have been. "I feel like we've lived ten days of sailing in only three days," he said, "and in completely different conditions." Even from the front of the fleet, the relentless pace has left him genuinely startled.
North of Ireland, where forecasts had suggested conditions might ease, Goodchild instead ran straight into a disorderly tangle of squalls, shifting winds, and fitful lulls that gave MACIF Santé Prévoyance no rhythm to settle into. Foiling IMOCAs offer their skippers little mercy in such conditions. The boat would surge away on its foils one moment and slam into oncoming waves the next, making any meaningful rest close to impossible. It was only when the breeze finally dropped away last night that real recovery became possible. "I don't know how many hours I got," he said, "but genuinely a lot."
That recovery will not last long. A deep depression is now developing squarely across the route to the Arctic Circle, and going around it is simply not an option. Goodchild reached for a blunt analogy to describe the situation. "It's like bear hunting," he said. "You can't go around it, you have to go through it." Winds above 30 knots are forecast, though he expects the worst of the system to pass quickly before conditions ease and the long run south gets under way.
Exactly where MACIF Santé Prévoyance will cross the Arctic Circle remains unsettled. Goodchild is running multiple weather scenarios and holding back from committing to a specific latitude until the various forecasts begin to align. The options remain spread across a wide range, with some models pointing east of the United Kingdom and others favouring the Irish Sea or the east coast of Ireland. A second major depression set to sweep across Ireland in the coming days will have a strong say in how the southbound leg takes shape. "Aucune ne raconte vraiment la même histoire," he said of the competing forecasts. His approach is to keep as many doors open as possible and commit only when the data starts telling a consistent story.
Goodchild expects to reach the Arctic Circle in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Once past that point, another low-pressure system will be waiting, bringing variable winds and heavy seas. The race had always advertised this kind of complexity, but the speed at which everything has stacked up has clearly caught him off guard. "I'm surprised at our speed. Tomorrow I'll be at the Arctic Circle. It's all compressed into three days."
