Thursday was always going to be the day this leg of The Ocean Race Atlantic came down to nerve rather than knots. With the finish line at Lorient now within reach, four boats remain locked in a contest that nobody can confidently call.
DMG MORI Global One holds the lead, but only just. At 0630 CEST this morning less than 25 miles separated the top four boats, a margin that on the open ocean counts for almost nothing.
Kojiro Shiraishi's crew were sitting less than 90 miles from the finish at that point, with an ETA now put at around 1400 CEST, though race organisers caution it could land anywhere between 1200 and 1700 depending on how the wind behaves.
That's the catch. Light winds around Lorient, fluctuating between 5 and 10 knots along the Morbihan coast, are expected to bunch the fleet back together just as the finish approaches.
United by the Ocean sat second, just five miles behind DMG MORI Global One both on the rhumb line and laterally, a gap that could vanish in an afternoon of fickle breeze. 11th Hour Racing followed 13 miles back, with Team Malizia a further 12 miles behind in fourth, sitting slightly to the north of the group.
Nicolas Lunven, on board race leader DMG MORI Global One, put it bluntly: "The wind is dropping, so the fleet will close up again before the finish." He added: "We may be in the lead right now, but everything could still change."
The mood on board has stayed buoyant despite the tension, or perhaps because of it. Justine Mettraux and Julien Villon were caught laughing on Malizia's onboard footage after taking out the Super Sprint. Samantha Davies reported simply that "everything is going well" aboard DMG MORI Global One.
Mariana Lobato, sailing on United by the Ocean, joked that "with more wind and bigger waves, these would be dream conditions." Benjamin Ferré summed up the wider situation neatly: "Four boats can still win this race, with four different strategies."
Francesca Clapcich, racing on 11th Hour Racing, was similarly upbeat. "The fleet is still very tightly bunched and it's thrilling," she said. "It's great to experience, and I hope it's just as enjoyable for everyone following us back on land."
Boris Herrmann, on Team Malizia, wasn't ready to concede anything. "We're giving it everything we've got, hanging in there, and the race won't be over until we cross the finish line. We'll see if we can still pull off a surprise."
Further back, Embrace the Challenge in fifth and MSIG Europe in sixth face bigger deficits, 330 miles and 550 miles respectively. But they may be better placed than those numbers suggest.
Sailing further south than the leading quartet, both boats have found a more direct route and steadier breeze. Conrad Colman was relaxed about it: "Overall, things are looking good, and we mainly have wind all the way to the finish."
Four boats, four strategies, one finish line still to be crossed at Lorient. Nobody on board is taking anything for granted, and nor should anyone watching from the shore.
