Under 600 miles from the finish, and still nobody can call this one.
DMG MORI Global One holds top spot heading into Lorient, with 11th Hour Racing second, United by the Ocean third and Team Malizia fourth. Just 25 miles separate all four on the leaderboard, with 50 miles between them laterally. All are due in on Thursday, weather permitting.
That's the thing about The Ocean Race Atlantic's first edition. It has refused to settle down.
The scrap for position kicked off earlier in the week when a high-pressure system parked itself across the leaders' path, and it hasn't let up since. Will Harris, sailing with 11th Hour Racing, reckons it will go right to the wire.
"I think everything will be decided in the final 100 miles of the race," he said. "It's going to be a very tight finish, and we'll have to keep pushing all the way to the end."
Nicolas Lunven has had plenty of time to pore over the tactics aboard DMG MORI Global One. The high-pressure system, he explains, drifted into their path rather than sitting still, slowing them without stopping them outright.
"It actually moved in front of us, so it slowed us down a little, but it didn't bring us to a complete stop," he said. "You have to find the right balance between taking a longer route to the north to get away from the centre of the high-pressure system, and taking the shortest possible route to cover less distance."
Lunven, fresh off winning the Solitaire du Figaro, believes the real decisions were made days ago. "The die have been cast yesterday, or even two days ago," he said. Positioning is everything now.
Team Malizia sits furthest north, though Boris Herrmann's crew has clawed back some of the lateral gap. 11th Hour Racing and United by the Ocean are running a more central course, with 11th Hour Racing edging slightly ahead of Francesca Clapcich's boat in recent hours. DMG MORI Global One has gone furthest south of the lot.
"We made that choice a little earlier and we had more wind than expected, but perhaps we would have preferred to be a little further north," Lunven admitted.
Still, that gamble has put Kojiro Shiraishi's crew in front, for now.
"If the high-pressure system shifts a little faster than expected, we might have made the right call. But if it moves slowly, we won't have. It's difficult to know. We don't have a crystal ball!"
Further back, there's a different story playing out. Embrace The Challenge sits fifth, MSIG Europe sixth, some 266 and 350 miles adrift of the leader respectively. Neither has been caught by the high-pressure system dogging the front-runners, which means they've kept the throttle down.
"Even though we're a long way behind, paradoxically it gives us a much more direct route to Lorient," Swiss sailor Oliver Heer said.
It's showing in the results. Embrace The Challenge picked up its second Super Sprint win on Tuesday, and MSIG Europe has climbed into second in that mini-contest.
But the real drama is up front. Lunven, for one, isn't complaining about the conditions, calling them "idyllic." "It's comfortable, and at the same time, we're going fast!"
Clapcich agrees there's no clear favourite. "I don't think any of the four leading boats is out of the race. It's going to be a fight right to the end. The finish is going to be incredibly close."
She's enjoying every minute of it. "With just these boats, it's really a great race to watch. And, to be honest, it's also a lot of fun to be part of it!"
