The Globe 5.80 Transat qualifier from Lagos to Lanzarote has been cancelled. Race founder Don McIntyre announced the decision on Wednesday 4 November (Europe time) after studying a developing weather system in the Atlantic, and all six boats have been told to return to Lagos at their best safe speed.
The race says the fleet would have been exposed to two storms over the next few days. It also says the Transat may restart directly from Lagos, with more details to follow.
At 20:00 UTC on Wednesday the boats were between 86 and 204 nautical miles from Lagos, all sailing north-east for Portugal.
Globe 5.80 Transat 2026 qualifier: miles made good towards Lanzarote
Nautical miles gained on the 565 nm tracker course, start (31 Oct, 14:00 UTC) to 4 Nov, 20:00 UTC. Four-hourly tracker positions, interpolated where a report fell between them.
Source: Globe 5.80 Transat live tracker (YB Tracking). Origami's flat line shows her return to Marina de Lagos overnight on 31 October. The lines fall after the qualifier was cancelled on 4 November and the fleet turned back for Lagos.
Where is the fleet now?
These are straight-line distances back to Marina de Lagos from the tracker at 20:00 UTC on 4 November, with each boat's speed over the previous four hours.
Origami (Dean Frost and Lee McCarthy, UK): 85.7 nm, 3.7 knots
Meraki (Bruce Payne, Australia): 141.6 nm, 2.8 knots
Inimini (Matthew Freestone, UK): 175.4 nm, 4.2 knots
Trekka (Yi Qun Liu, China): 176.3 nm, 3.5 knots
Flow (Viivi Moisio, Finland): 194.6 nm, 4.3 knots
Capucinette (Katherine Urpani, Malta): 204.0 nm, 4.0 knots
If they hold those speeds, Origami would be back in Lagos late on Thursday UTC, and the rest during Friday. Those are straight-line sums at constant speed, and Thursday's light winds could slow everyone down.
How the qualifier ended
Wednesday started as the best day of the race. The breeze finally filled in overnight, and from 04:00 to 08:00 UTC the front five each made 14 to 18 nm towards Lanzarote, one of the quickest spells of the race.
Viivi Moisio made the most of it. By 12:00 UTC Flow had made 225.3 nm towards the finish, about 15 nm ahead of Katherine Urpani's Capucinette. Inimini and Trekka were another 8 nm back, just 0.7 nm apart on the tracker, with Meraki and Origami further behind.
By the afternoon the tracks had turned. Origami was already heading back by midday. The other boats turned for Lagos between 12:00 and 20:00 UTC, Capucinette last of all after pushing on to the south-west until the afternoon.
With the qualifier cancelled there is no result, but for the record Flow was furthest down the course when the fleet turned around, about 340 nm short of Lanzarote.
Why was the qualifier cancelled?
The race's announcement says the decision followed careful analysis of the developing weather system, with safety first. In a Facebook Live briefing Don explained that the fleet would have been exposed to two storms in the next few days.
A post on Katherine's Facebook page had flagged the risk earlier in the week, warning that models showed headwinds building on 8 November with gusts to 45 knots and seas to 4 metres. After the light winds of the first few days, that would have caught the 5.8 metre boats about halfway to the Canaries.
Life aboard before the turnaround
The latest batch of satellite messages from the fleet, sent on 3 November, shows the sailors in good spirits the day before the cancellation.
Dean and Lee reported avocado and blueberries for breakfast on Origami, followed by a later note that they had had wind, then didn't, and were having fun regardless. Yves sent a short message from Trekka saying he was waiting for rain so he could have a shower.
Bruce reported Meraki almost becalmed, with thunder and lightning further south, and added that it was all part of the adventure. Viivi said she had found some wind after a slow night, while Matthew and Katherine kept theirs brief and said all was well.
What is the weather forecast for the return to Lagos?
This is our own reading of the free ECMWF and GFS models on PredictWind. The boats are heading north-east, so a breeze from the south or south-east is a fair wind for them. The readings below are for where the boats were on Wednesday evening and off Lagos, so the moving fleet will see something a little different.
Thursday, about 10:30 UTC. Light. Both models give 3 to 4 knots from the south-west around the main group, about 5 knots from the west or north-west near Origami, and 5 to 6 knots from the north-west off Lagos.
Friday, about 12:45 UTC. A southerly fills in. Around the main group it is 6 to 8 knots from the south to south-south-east, and off Lagos 10 to 11 knots from the south-east, with pressure at 1020 to 1021 hPa.
Saturday, about 15:00 UTC. Still favourable. Both models show 9 to 10 knots from the south-east where the fleet is now, and 12 to 14 knots from the east-south-east off Lagos.
Sunday, about 17:00 UTC. A deep low sits north-west of Madeira, with 25 to 35 knots on its flanks. Where the fleet is now, the models give 20 to 23 knots from the south-south-west at 1010 hPa. Off Lagos they show 15 to 19 knots from the south-south-east.
These are average winds, so gusts will be stronger. The aim for every boat is to be tied up in Lagos before Sunday. Friday's and Saturday's fair winds should help, but the light start on Thursday leaves less margin for the slower boats.
What happens next?
The race has said the Transat may restart directly from Lagos, with further updates to come. The original plan was to start the Atlantic crossing from Lanzarote on 14 November. The race has not yet said how the restart will work or how the cancelled qualifier affects the solo sailors' qualification for the 2029 Mini Globe Race, and we will report that when it does.
For the story so far, read our Day 5 report and our Day 4 report.
I have reached out to Don with a request for an interview, I am waiting for him to come back to me at this moment.
Meet the skippers
Read our profiles of Viivi Moisio and Flow, Katherine Urpani and Capucinette, Matthew Freestone and Inimini, Yi Qun Liu (Yves) and Trekka, Bruce Payne and Meraki, and Dean Frost, Lee McCarthy and Origami. The Globe 5.80 Transat is a sister race to the Golden Globe Race, which Go Boating follows every day.
