A large anticyclone parked over the North Sea is calling the shots on the English Channel this Saturday 31 October, and it is throwing up a weather pattern rarely seen at this time of year.
The timing is awkward, given the Route du Rhum - Destination Guadeloupe 2026 is due to start within days.
Skippers and shore teams in Saint-Malo are watching closely, keen to know what it means for conditions as the fleet lines up for the start.
Cyrille Duchesne, meteorologist at METEO CONSULT, the official weather partner of the Route du Rhum - Destination Guadeloupe 2026, has been breaking down how the picture is likely to evolve over the coming days.
The high pressure system over the North Sea is an atypical setup for late October. This part of the season usually brings unsettled, low-pressure driven weather through the Channel. Instead, sailors preparing in Saint-Malo are dealing with something calmer, at least for now.
That fits a broader pattern this edition. Race direction has already settled on a downwind start under blue skies, a rare treat after editions scarred by low-pressure drama, even as the Atlantic crossing ahead is shaping up rather differently. It is the kind of system that can catch people out.
Race organisers and competitors alike are keeping a close eye on how long the anticyclone holds its grip, and what replaces it once it eventually breaks down. The days leading into a Rhum start are always tense, and an unusual pressure pattern like this adds another layer of uncertainty to final routing calls.
Teams in Saint-Malo are still finalising last-minute checks on the boats, but conversations on the dock keep circling back to the sky and what it might do next. This comes a day after the Ultim fleet departed through the Saint-Malo locks to roaring crowds, and after the IMOCA fleet and part of the Vintage Multi class left the pontoons under brilliant sunshine, a send-off that lifted the mood from the emotional scenes of the day before.
Duchesne's briefings over these final days will matter. With the fleet due to depart for Guadeloupe shortly, any shift in the North Sea high, or in the timing of its breakdown, could shape early routing decisions across both the IMOCA and Ultim fleets, as well as the Rhum Mono and Ocean Fifty classes.
There is no word yet on exactly when the system might ease. That picture should sharpen as METEO CONSULT issues further updates in the run-up to the start.
For now, Saint-Malo sits under a quieter, high-pressure sky than usual for the end of October, a calm that sailors know rarely lasts long on the Channel.
