Eleven points separate first from second on the 52 SUPER SERIES leaderboard heading into Valencia, and history suggests that gap could evaporate inside a single race.
The circuit's season finale runs from Tuesday 6 to Saturday 10 October off Malvarrosa Beach, with an official practice day on the Monday. It is the fifth and final event of the year, and the title, along with the minor placings, remains up for grabs.
Harm Müller-Spreer's German-flagged Platoon Aviation lead on 171 points after winning the Royal Cup in Puerto Calero, Lanzarote. Takashi Okura's Sled sit second on 182, having won the season's opening two regattas before a technical breakdown in the Canaries cost them nine points they can scarcely afford to be without.
Platoon are the 2023 champions and look to be sailing at their best in years. Sled are this year's world champions and remain dangerous, breakdown or not.
The battle behind them is just as tight. Andrea Lacorte's Alkedo Cetilar hold third on 217 points, 11 clear of France's Paprec on 228, who took third overall last season. Sweden's Trinity Racing, newcomers to the fleet this year, sit just one point further back on 229 with genuine designs on a podium finish in their debut season.
Sixteen teams from 11 nations will take the start line, the largest fleet the series has assembled. John Huhn's American-flagged Katana step up to the top level this week with a well sorted boat, the 2018-launch hull that won the 2023 season as Platoon.
"We feel good. I feel we can win," said Müller-Spreer. "It has been a while to really get this boat working well and now I feel we have the boat to do the job and a team with the experience and the drive."
Platoon's tactician Vasco Vascotto called it a privilege to arrive in Valencia leading the table. "I think generally we have sailed well but it will be a luxury to have a great fight with Sled at the last event."
Sled are not conceding anything. Project manager and mainsheet trimmer Don Cowie says the crew will "go out swinging."
"We need to not give away silly penalties like we have and we had that gear failure which cost us nine points," Cowie said. "We need to improve our starts and sail solid races."
Valencia in late season is notoriously changeable. Conditions in 2024 ranged from hard, shifty offshore breezes to near calm, and no formula works two days running.
Alkedo Cetilar's bowman and project manager Matteo De Luca is confident going in, pointing to new light-wind sails and a race area his team knows intimately. Paprec's tactician Loïck Peyron says his combination with navigator Yoann Richomme is "still getting better." Trinity's Ed Baird, an America's Cup-winning tactician, reckons Valencia could turn into a series of private battles among the leaders, "and that will help the rest of us."
Consistency, not brilliance, tends to decide these things. Whoever avoids the unforced error across five days of racing will likely be the one lifting the trophy.
