Coastal Classic crews told to settle in for a slow night north of Cape Rodney

Anyone at the Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron tonight hoping PredictWind had found some wind since Monday evening's Weathcr and Tactics Clinic went home tonight disappointed. The fleet gets a decent breeze off the start line tomorrow, and then the hard work begins.

The RNZYS hall was packed tonight to hear PredictWind's Nick Olson give the skippers of the now 95-boat PIC Coastal Classic fleet their final forecast.

The seven-knot picture he painted at Monday's clinic has not changed. “There’s definitely going to be a lot of yachting,” he said.

A high in the Tasman is sitting over a weak gradient that will fade through tomorrow. Olson pointed out it’s the first time in about two months that Auckland hasn’t had a solid south-westerly blowing through it.

Good to Cape Rodney, then tricky

He expects that at 10am start-off just out from Devonport will offer enough breeze to get every boat moving. Further north at Cape Rodney is where it changes. On every routing he ran, from the TP52s down to the smaller multihulls and the Ross 930s, the fleet sails out of the breeze and into a soft, patchy transition somewhere along that stretch of coast.

“Whichever fleet you’re in, whichever boat you’re in, it starts to get interesting,” he said.

His advice was to stay close to the rhumb line and resist the urge to go hunting miles offshore. A Northland local had also told him he suspected a sea breeze might come over the land from the east coast side, and some of the models back him up. If it does, it will reward the crews who are watching for it.

Further north, the breeze builds again and gives the leaders a decent sail around midnight. It goes light once more in the early hours. “There’s nothing nasty,” Olson said. “It’s going to be long.”

Not every skipper in the room was planning to wait it out. Graham Matthews’ Equilibrium is one of the biggest boats in the fleet. In April she crossed the Three Kings finish line third, 532 miles and 53 hours of hard offshore sailing after the start. This time Matthews has planned around the galley. He has a crew of 10 in two watches, a beef bourguignon already made, broad beans and broccoli from his garden, and several bottles of red. “We will be having a pleasant evening regardless of the conditions,” he said.

He’d texted the crew to ask about switching to the rally and starting early, but it would still hit the same hole off Cape Rodney. So Equilibrium starts with everyone else and sails as far as the breeze allows.

When to look at the numbers

Most of the high-resolution models were still loading as Olson presented, so he couldn’t give crews a final answer tonight. Tomorrow morning's model runs arrive between 5am and 8am, just in time for last-minute routing.

The next run will be tomorrow evening. A fresh model run could change the night’s tactics. By then plenty of boats won’t be halfway to Russell. Olson advised skippers to be watching for the fresh model closely.

The global models, he admits, at a 25 km resolution show wind everywhere, and will tell the skippers very little. Instead, he suggested crews set up observation stations along the coast before they leave the dock, then watch the trends as they work north. Mike Sanderson made much the same point on Monday in his light-air game plan.

Mind the tide

With so little pressure, the current could decide places. The tidal flow will be setting the fleet toward the start line; anyone sitting too close to the line risks being swept over it. After that the tide helps the fleet up the coast as far as Tiri, where it turns.

Kawau in January

Simon Hull also slipped in a reminder about the club’s newest event. The Evolution Sails Kawau Classic runs from 29 to 31 January out of the Kawau Boating Club in Bon Accord Harbour.

There are five races over three days, starting late on the Friday afternoon, and Hull promised crews would be “back in time for dinner and a beer”. He believes the flat water will suit the multihulls, but the regatta is open to keelboats, trailer yachts and sports boats too, with a cruising rally alongside the racing.

Go Boating will be on the water for tomorrow’s start, with live updates in our Coastal Classic section.