Patience, not pace, looks set to decide this year's PIC Coastal Classic.
At the Forecast and Tactics Clinic ahead of the race, which starts from 0930 on Friday 23 October, PredictWind's Nick Olson delivered a long-range forecast that had the room laughing, if a little uneasily. "There's a 12-hour variation that I can see at the moment between when the first boat is likely to cross the finish line!" he told the gathered crews.
Doyle Sails' Mike Sanderson summed it up best. "You're going to get a lot of yachting!"
Light winds are shaping up to dominate the 119-nautical-mile race, promising a long night of frustration, sail changes and second-guessing for the fleet. Routing for a First 44.7 suggests an elapsed time of around 20 hours, with a likely finish between 5am and 6am on Saturday 24 October. The forecast, issued four days out, points to generally benign conditions: maximum gusts of about 14 knots, no rain, no thunderstorms, nothing exciting at all.
A southwesterly of 7 to 10 knots should at least give boats a downwind start, running under asymmetric or spinnaker through the harbour and out into the Hauraki Gulf.
Sanderson's advice to crews was blunt. Clean your hull.
"You can get half a knot more speed if you ensure your hull is clean before the race!" he said, keen to remind sailors that speed gains are still there to be found, even in a drifter.
Weight is the enemy in this sort of race, and Sanderson didn't hold back on what that means in practice. "Preparation is the key for a race like the Coastal. And the only thing you should ever add weight to is a steam roller."
That philosophy extends to crew numbers, too. Sanderson suggested leaving some sailors on the dock altogether, rather than carrying bodies who would rather be somewhere with more breeze.
"Send a message out to your crew! Anyone who's not excited about a max speed of 7 knots, get them to drive the car up!" he laughed.
Sails are no exception, even brand new ones built specifically for this campaign. "We built a new Jibtop for the Rehab for this race, but it's only for 15+ knots, so it's staying on the dock," Sanderson said. "Carry light gear, weight will make a significant difference. Anything you can do without compromising the comfort and safety of the crew, leave behind."
It's shaping up as a long one. Settle in.
The early picture suggests this Coastal Classic won't be decided by raw boat speed. Crews who read the pressure correctly, anticipate the shifts, and execute clean sail changes without burning out mentally over the course of the race will have the edge.
"It's going to be an interesting race!" Sanderson said, before offering what might be the key piece of advice for the whole fleet. "We have a tendency as Kiwis to go 110%, then fall to 40%. Just chip away."
This year, more than most, the Coastal is a marathon rather than a sprint.
Olson will provide an updated forecast at the briefing on Thursday 22 October, and Doyle Sails will shout the first 100 sailors through the door a free burger to kick off the night.
