Seven people died when the 56-metre sailing superyacht Bayesian sank in the early hours of 19 August 2024. The vessel was anchored approximately 300 metres off Porticello, near Palermo, Sicily, with 22 people aboard that night. Fifteen survived. Among the dead were British technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, Morgan Stanley International chairman Jonathan Bloomer and his wife Judy, lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda, and the yacht's chef, Recaldo Thomas.
Bayesian was built by Perini Navi and delivered in 2008, with naval architecture by Ron Holland Design. Her 75-metre mast made her the tallest single-masted aluminium sailing vessel of her time. On the night she sank, her centreboard was raised and every sail was furled.
Winds began building at around 3am and had reached 30 knots by 3:55am. At 4:06am Bayesian rolled hard to starboard and sank. The entire sequence took minutes.
Conflicting findings
Two separate investigations have produced markedly different conclusions about what caused the loss of Bayesian.
The UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) published its interim report in May 2025, identifying wind acting on the yacht's profile, particularly her tall rig, as the decisive factor. Researchers at the University of Southampton's Wolfson Unit determined that beam-on gusts exceeding 63 knots would likely have driven Bayesian past the point of recovery. The MAIB placed that threshold at a heel angle of 70.6 degrees. The branch also found that Bayesian's stability booklet contained no reference to the risks posed by high gusts with the centreboard raised, leaving both owner and crew without that critical information.
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A separate expert analysis commissioned by the public prosecutor's office in Termini Imerese reached a different conclusion. First reported by Sky News at the end of April, those findings characterise the weather that night as little more than a squall, a sharp and short-lived increase in wind speed that a properly managed vessel and crew should have handled without incident. Under that assessment, the sinking is attributed to crew misjudgement of conditions and the failure to activate certain safety systems.
On that basis, prosecutors are weighing potential charges against New Zealand captain James Cutfield and two crew members, Tim Eaton and Matthew Griffith, including negligent shipwreck and multiple counts of manslaughter.
Builder's position
The Italian Sea Group, which owns Perini Navi, has consistently rejected any suggestion of a design deficiency. Chief executive Giovanni Costantino has publicly described Bayesian as unsinkable, arguing that open hatches or doors allowed flooding once the yacht had listed. The company has launched legal proceedings against the captain, two crew members, and the vessel's holding company, seeking €456 million in damages for reputational harm and lost sales.
The MAIB's final report has not yet been released. Bayesian was raised from 50 metres of water in a salvage operation completed in 2025.
