Racing is finally under way at Bay of Islands Sailing Week. After weather wiped out the opening day entirely, fleets got moving this morning, and the forecast for the days ahead offers genuine cause for optimism.
Conditions at 10:52am showed wind sitting around 20 knots on the start area, having briefly touched 24 knots earlier. Drawing on the consensus across the main PredictWind models, the breeze is expected to ease slightly through late morning, settling near 18 knots around midday before building again to about 22 knots by mid afternoon. Competitors should prepare for a full working day on the water, where well-timed trim changes and tidy boat handling will earn their keep.
Gusts are the main variable to watch. Model agreement points to most squalls landing in the mid to high 20s, with the possibility of shorter, sharper bursts as the afternoon progresses. Those spikes are expected to be brief rather than sustained, and the overall trend through the latter half of the day does not suggest a blowout. The conditions will reward crews who stay switched on.
Rain is the defining feature of today's sailing. Wet weather gear will be essential from first start to final finish. Most guidance shows two to three millimetres per hour through late morning and into early afternoon, followed by a heavier pulse later in the day. That rain is likely to continue into the evening and through the night. Visibility remains a watch point, though it is holding well enough for racing as things stand.
There is no meaningful lightning signal in the models for today, and the risk remains low heading into Thursday as well.
Thursday is where things get considerably more attractive. It is shaping as the standout day of the regatta, with a base breeze of 14 to 16 knots and gusts only briefly lifting towards 20 knots. The rain largely clears during racing hours, making it the cleanest combination of the week.
Friday carries a similar character. Winds in the low to mid teens, modest gusts, and a genuine chance of some sunshine. After a messy start, Bay of Islands Sailing Week now looks well set for a proper run to the finish.
